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The Warmest Year and The Warmest Year to Come
January 14, 2007
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2006, according National Climatic Data Center, was the warmest year ever recorded in the US. Source: NOAA I can still remember the record breaking heat wave in the east coast, from Chicago to New York, and the longest period (12 days straight) that the day-high temperature was over 100 degree F in Sacramento. In addition, the unusually warm, springlike December, which was the result of the globe warming trend and El Nino, in the East of the US contributed to the warmest year record. This shouldn’t be a surprise I think because "The past nine years has been among the 25 warmest years on record", says NOAA’s NCDC report. Beside, many people should probably still remember that in the beginning of 2006, 2005 was the warmest year on record.
What is the forecast for 2007 then?
"2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally", say climate-change experts at the Met Office. Source: MET Office
Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as solar effects, El Niño, greenhouse gases concentrations and other multi-decadal influences. Over the previous seven years, the Met Office forecast of annual global temperature has proved remarkably accurate, with a mean forecast error size of just 0.06 °C.
I remember in the end of the 2005 hurricane season, many climatologists began to "predict" that we would observe more hurricanes in 2006 than in 2005, and the number of super hurricanes would also increase along the Gulf of Mexico. However, in 2006 there is very little hurricanes activities in the gulf region, and very few hurricanes reached the US because of El Nino. Although in the textbook it says El Nino occurs every 7-11 years, the latest climate model shows that the El Nino will happen more frequently as the average of the globe temperature gets higher. This only shows that the globe climate is an extremely complicated system, and with some many variables, it is very hard to forecast. (Nevertheless, we did see a number of supper typhoons in the East Asia and Australia.) Will the forecast of 2007 be likely to happen? Certainly. In recently years, the warmest year records were coupled with El Nino, so I think 2007 is very likely to be the warmest year on record.
PS: IF any climatologist randomly comes across this article (which is extremely unlikely, however) and find the language is a little off and unprofessional, just keep it in mind that I am not a climatologist. XD